TikTok Shop GMV Forecaster · Free Tool

Your inputs

Last updated August 2026. Market inputs move fast, so do we.

Your headline result

Example

£53kto£114k

Example forecast: beauty brand, £25 AOV, growing investment, LIVE in the plan. Run your own numbers and this becomes yours.

1.35x

LIVE uplift applied

1,200 to 2,600

monthly orders modelled

How this is calculated

No black box. The model is a monthly order volume range for your investment level, adjusted by a category multiplier, multiplied by your AOV.

Investment level sets a month-6 monthly order range: starting 400 to 900, growing 1,200 to 2,600, aggressive 3,000 to 6,500 orders.
Category multipliers: beauty & personal care 1.3, fashion & apparel 1.15, health & wellness 1.1, food & drink 1.0, home & lifestyle 0.9.
Running LIVE applies a 1.35x uplift. LIVE and affiliate content compound, roughly 42% of US GMV is driven by affiliate creator content.
Month 3 is modelled at 45% of month 6. Month 12 at 190% of month 6, in line with about 48% forecast market growth for 2026 plus channel maturity.

Every figure is directional, not a promise. The full forecast below shows the levers behind the number.

That is the range. The full plan is how you hit the top of it.

Email my full forecast

✓The channel mix behind the number, LIVE, affiliate, content, paid

✓Affiliate seeding volume for your category and AOV

✓LIVE cadence, hours per week and when to scale it

✓The levers that move you from the low end to the high end

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forecast questions, answered.

Is the forecast a guarantee?

No. Every figure is directional, not a promise. The model gives you a range, not a point, precisely because outcomes depend on execution: creator volume, content quality, LIVE cadence and offer architecture all move the result inside and beyond the range. Treat it as a sizing exercise for the channel, then pressure-test the assumptions in a real plan.

Where do the ranges come from?

From the trading patterns we see across £100m+ of managed GMV and 80+ brands. Investment level sets a monthly order range, a category multiplier adjusts for demand, your AOV converts orders to revenue, and running LIVE applies a 1.35x uplift. Every assumption is published in the "How this is calculated" panel on this page, so nothing is a black box.

Why does running LIVE change the number so much?

Because LIVE compresses demonstration, urgency and checkout into one moment, and it compounds with affiliate content: creators warm the audience that the LIVE room converts. That is why the model applies an uplift when LIVE is in the plan, and why the biggest results on the platform are LIVE-led.

see the size of the prize.

forecast questions, answered.

want the number underwritten by a team.